2011: Year of the Family
What we need is a morning-after pill that brings your memory back. In such events, the Korean's say "Pillum ggeungyeosseo" (Film's gone!)
This story continues to amaze me. Who needs science fiction when there’s alternate lines of human evolution to contemplate! So, a little more about the significance of that finger bone and molar found in the Denisova cave.
This discovery is extraordinary on many levels.
Perhaps the most important is that one small group of modern humans who live far away from Siberia—the Melanesian islanders of the Pacific Ocean—have picked up a block of genes from the newly discovered species on their (or, rather, their ancestors’) travels. Genetic evidence of the Melanesians’ journey from the African cradle of Homo sapiens, which started (like that of all non-African people) about 60,000 years ago when a band of adventurers crossed the straits of Bab el Mandeb, from modern Djibouti to modern Yemen, suggests they then continued along the south coast of Asia, never going far inland. For the necessary interbreeding to have happened, Dr Paabo’s new species would thus have to have been spread over a vast area of Asia. Yet it has left no previously identified traces.
To be fair, Asia has not, so far, been a rich source of human fossils—unlike Africa, where many sites in the east and the south have yielded ancestral humans, and Europe, where Neanderthals have been found by the hundred. Good Asian fossils come only from China (Peking Man, a type of Homo erectus) and Indonesia (Java Man, another erectus, and Homo floresiensis, the much-maligned “hobbit” of the island of Flores). Stone tools abound, but human bones from other Asian sites are almost as rare as hens’ teeth. The few that do exist are now, of course, the subject of intense scrutiny and much debate about whether they, too, belong to the new species.
What this discovery ought to provide, then, is the impetus to start looking much harder for human fossils in Asia. The new species, which has yet to be named, clearly lived all over the place. If, despite that, it remained hidden until now, who knows what other species of human might also be out there?
Do you hear that, grad students!? Let’s get digging!
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The Economist applies the example of German unification to the Koreas‘ Sisyphean task. Drawing on the two courses open to it, massive handouts or immigration, the weekly recommends Seoul split the pain and the difference.
If the Koreas reunified, the government would face a stark choice. It could try to fill the gap in living standards between North and South, through handouts, public investment and subsidies. Or it could brace itself for heavy migration, as poor Northerners moved to the South in search of higher wages.
Germany leaned towards the first option. East German Ostmark wages were converted into West German D-marks at a rate of one to one, then raised by union pressure closer to Western levels. This allayed fears that migrant workers would flood into the West, or that capital would flood out. But it also deterred private investment in the East—except for heavily subsidised property speculation which ultimately failed—and priced many of its workers out of the market.
Michael Funke of Hamburg University and Holger Strulik of the Leibniz University in Hanover are two of the many economists who have studied Germany’s reunification. In 2005 they used the same framework to model the Korean case. Their calculations (which they describe as “rigorous speculation”) illustrate the scale of the problem. To equalise the standard of living in both parts of the country would initially cost over half of the South’s tax revenues. The government could reduce the fiscal burden to 30% of revenues, but only at the cost of receiving 8m migrants, the two economists estimate.
The government could, of course, spread the cost over time by borrowing abroad: there is no reason why today’s Koreans should pay the full cost of reunifying their country. And in principle, North Korea’s productivity might catch up with the South’s quite rapidly. Because capital is scarce in the North, returns should in theory be high. Investors will be drawn to its promising location, its raw materials and its workers, who are young, reasonably well educated and cheap. (Many South Korean and Chinese firms have already taken the plunge. Hyundai Asan and Korea Land Corporation, for example, run the Kaesong Industrial Complex a few miles inside the North. It hosts 116 factories, employing 40,000 North Koreans, producing over $20m-worth of textiles, chemicals, electronics and other goods a month.)
50%? 30%? Am I the only one who predicts riots in Seoul’s streets? I can foresee a future where Kaeseong figures a bit higher, if only to hide the problem form the South Korean public. And, borrowing from foreigners to finance Korea’s sacred mission? It’ll never happen.
Another ironic conclusion from the article is, that, based on refugee testimony, North Koreans already rely heavily on illicit markets to make ends meet.
Despite North Korea’s obstinate commitment to central planning, the market is growing like a vine in the cracks of the socialist edifice. In their new book, “Witness to Transformation”, Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland document this market reform “from below”, drawing on surveys of refugees in South Korea and China. They find that 62% of the refugees in China had relied on the market as their primary source of food; only 3% relied on the state. And almost 70% of the refugees said they got more than half of their income from some form of private enterprise, such as selling crops or repairing bikes.
The shocker for a center-right newspaper is, that The Economist recommends Pyongyang keep central planning and reintroduce its public distribution system. Unification will take an ideological suspension of belief on all sides, and no one will be immune from pain. This is undoubtedly why my wife and her family vehemently oppose unification. I can’t blame them. I can foresee nothing but a hash of ad hoc policies, crises, and public outrage after a hangover caused by unrealistic expectations.
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[Caption]As discreet developments, the easing of travel restrictions and troop desertions are remarkable, even a moment to cheer; together they start to worry.
Firstly, Andrei Lankpv narrates the slow erosion of North Korea’s restrictive travel visa system.
Nowadays, the authorities issue travel permits for trips lasting a week or two. Often they can be bribed to speed up the process, and in such a case the permits are produced almost immediately. The amount of bribe varies, depending on the destination: from some $10 for Pyongyang to merely $2 to $3 for a humble countryside destination. Money seems to be paid usually in exchange for speed.
There is something even more remarkable: In recent years North Korean authorities began to issue certificates which allow its bearer to travel to China, crossing the border legally. The procedure is time-consuming, taking about six months. As usual, it requires special security checks by the authorities. However, the outcome of such procedures is not pre-ordained, so generous payments are helpful to steer officials in the right direction. In this case, the bribes are much larger, up to $100 (as opposed to the usual $50). For the average Korean this is a large amount of money, but a majority of the applicants are engaged in the cross-border shuttle activity, and for them $100 is not an exorbitant sum.
Small victories for liberty, yes, but couldn’t such easing also facilitate ever greater demands for travel? Once North Koreans get used to moving around, will borders stop them?
And then, there’s the indications of troop desertions in the North Korean military.
With no glue holding the starving and grumbling people together in the army, the North Korean army is showing more frequent signs of a meltdown. In the RFA article, military officials said the reported number of deserters is severely under-estimated. If the number of deserters is reported as 10 people, the actual number is closer to 50. (It was unclear from the article, whether the number 10 and 50 refers to the proportion of deserters in the army). Below the news article, some net users, such as Choi Jae-hyuk,[ko] pointed out that if only around 10 percent have fled, it can be understood, but if the movement involves 50-60 percent of members, it is a clear sign of change.
Not to be a spoilsport, but this is not how I want regime change n North Korea to proceed. I don’t want the country just to unravel without a hint of international contingency planning. Whereas lawless deserters are just a bad sign, workers with more room to roam might be a boon for the national economy that national planners could have to acknowledge with reforms. Still, both these developments are the sort of signs that snowball into crises, not happy endings.
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Spent New Years Eve at the Busan Aquarium with my girls, Jena and Alix. Such a nice way to spend my last weekday of vacation. We saw a bunch of sea creatures, including a broken shark. (Seriously, what was wrong with that shark??)
I’m freezing here in Busan, in the low thirties. I feel like each day gets colder! Not sure if I can handle this for the next several months. Brrr.
Spent New Years Eve at the Busan Aquarium with my girls, Jena and Alix. Such a nice way to spend my last weekday of vacation. We saw a bunch of sea creatures, including a broken shark. (Seriously, what was wrong with that shark??)
I’m freezing here in Busan, in the low thirties. I feel like each day gets colder! Not sure if I can handle this for the next several months. Brrr.
Christmas Eve, Eric made dinner for Matt & I. We had salmon, pesto pasta, broccoli, mashed potatoes, bruschetta, salad, and lots of wine and whiskey.I was shown all the youtube videos that I had apparently been missing out on, and we attempted to make a list of all the 50 states, with Matt being the only one who succeeded!
Cheese pizza may seem like no special treat. But in Korea, where pizza often has sweet potato and corn on it, a simple cheesy Costco pizza, brings so much delight!
Christmas at Rhylon’s was done potluck style. I made bean dip, other foods included stuffed mushrooms, sausage and cheese, apple pie, sushi, some Korean snacks, cookies, cake, fruit salad. Oh my!
I fear that maybe we don’t know when to stop, when it comes to food.
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