Is the Opposition in Myanmar Getting Old?

Two things I know about sanctions: states find ways to avoid them; and, unintended consequences abound, usually inflicted upon the innocent people in whose name sanctions are devised. So, now Aung San Suu Kyi has called for continued sanctions against Myanmar’s new government.

On February 7th Miss Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), issued a statement to the effect that—after a lot of consultation and discussion—they have decided that sanctions should stay. At least for the moment. The length of time it took for the NLD to say this reflects the fact that the issue has become a subject of live debate within the party. Nonetheless, the NLD was quite clear about the fact that the progress that others have claimed to see is in fact a sham; the regime, they say, should not be rewarded for doing so very little.

The NLD rebutted the charge that the sanctions serve only to impoverish the ordinary people of Myanmar—the very people that the NLD professes to represent—rather than to penalise the regime. One NLD official, Tin Oo, was quoted as saying that after extensive research the party had found “that sanctions affect only the leaders of the regime and their close business associates, not the majority of the people.” So, that would appear to be that, then.

But not quite, I think. The NLD must be aware that it will have disappointed many policymakers and business interests in the West who have been hoping to return, if only to offer some counterweight to China and Thailand in their accelerating exploitation of Myanmar’s natural resources. Accordingly, the NLD has given itself some wiggle room. Spokesmen say that the party is keen to “listen” to the people who argue that sanctions ought be lifted, and to have more discussions. We haven’t seen the last of this matter.

It sounds like stubborn recalcitrance, not a policy. Obviously, sanctions haven’t worked, unless the standard is keeping western interests out of the country. Beijing is not hurting. Miss Suu Kyi looks less of a reformer than a nationalist like her father.

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Filed under: Business/Economy, Southeast Asia Tagged: aung san suu kyi, burma, china, myanmar, nld, sanctions